美墨两国的经济隔阂比墙还厚

川普上任以后，、经济等进行了大刀阔斧的改革，北美自由贸易协定自然也没能幸免。一直以来饱受非议的自由贸易协定，终于在全球化的进程中，成为继英国脱欧之后，第二个瞩目的牺牲品。

Exchange?

Translated by 掘洞者

Proofread by 浓硫酸 ?三原

Edited by 陈思维

Understanding NAFTA, ?a disappointing but under-appreciated trade deal?

理解北美自由贸易协定——一个令人失望而又被低估的贸易协定

Feb 4th 2017 | Finance and economics

The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) has long been a populist punchbag. In the American presidential campaign of 1992, Ross Perot—an oddball Texas billionaire and independent candidate—claimed to hear a “giant sucking sound” as Mexico prepared to hoover up American jobs. Since its enactment, right-wing conspiracy theorists have speculated that NAFTA is merely a first step towards “North American Union”, and the swapping of the almighty dollar for the “amero”. Donald Trump, who plans to renegotiate (or scrap) the deal, mined a rich vein of anti-NAFTA sentiment during his campaign, calling it “the single worst trade deal ever approved in this country”. Even NAFTA’s cheerleaders (a more reticent bunch) might concede that the deal has fallen short of their expectations. But it is in none of the signatories’ interests to rip it up or roll it back.?

北美自由贸易协定(NAFTA)一直以来，都被当作民粹主义者的攻击目标。在1992年美国总统大选时，罗斯佩罗——得克萨斯州一位性格古怪的亿万富翁，同时也是1992年美国总统大选的无党派候选人——声称在墨西哥宛如拿着巨大的强力吸尘器，掠夺美国的工作机会时，他仿佛听到了 “巨大的吮吸声”。自从北美自由贸易协定签订以来，右翼阴谋论者就在猜测NAFTA只是迈向“北美联盟”的第一步，并且还将用阿梅罗(北美联合货币)来代替无所不能的美元。川普在竞选活动中已然利用了民众反北美联盟的情绪，他宣称这是“这个国家通过的最为糟糕的贸易协定”，而他现在正准备重新商定(或者说废除)该贸易协定。即使是NAFTA的支持者(一个更为缄默的人群)也不得不承认这份贸易协定未能达到他们的预期，但没有一个签署国愿意去撕毁协定或者降低它的效力。

America and Canada opened talks on a free-trade area with Mexico in 1990, shortly after securing their own bilateral deal, and it was bringing in Mexico that proved so contentious in America. When NAFTA took effect in 1994, it eliminated tariffs on more than half of its members’ industrial products. Over the next 15 years the deal eliminated tariffs on all industrial and agricultural goods. (The three economies would have further liberalized trade within the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which Mr Trump scotched in one of his first acts as president.)?

在美国和加拿大在达成双边协定后不久，1990年，他们又与墨西哥就“自由贸易区”展开了会谈，打算将墨西哥这个地理位置有争议的美洲国家纳入自由贸易区。1994年北美自由贸易区(NAFTA)生效后，超过半数的成员国的工业制品都被免除关税。在接下来的15年间，这份贸易协定免除了所有工业制品和农产品的关税。(这三个经济体本可以在泛太平洋合作伙伴框架下进一步开放贸易，然而特朗普先生却在他当上总统后立马将其取缔。)

Americans hoped lower trade barriers would foster growth in cross-border supply chains—a “Factory North America”—to rival those in Europe and Asia. By moving parts of their supply chains to Mexico, where labor costs were low, American firms reckoned they could cut costs and improve their global competitiveness. American consumers might also benefit from cheaper goods. For its part, Mexico sought improved access to America’s massive market, and sturdier positions for its firms within those North American supply chains. Both countries hoped the deal would boost Mexico’s economy, raising living standards and stanching the flow of migrants northward.?

美国希望更低的贸易壁垒可以促进跨境供应链，即所谓的“北美工厂”的发展，以便与欧洲和亚洲的竞争者抗衡。美国公司认为，通过把部分供应链转向劳动力成本低廉的墨西哥，他们可以降低成本，提高全球竞争力。美国的消费者也可以从较为低廉的商品中受惠。就墨西哥自身而言，它找到了一种进入美国巨大市场的更好途径，并巩固了它在北美供应链中的地位。美墨两国都希望北美自由贸易协定可以振兴墨西哥经济，提高墨国人民生活水平，并在一定程度上遏制移民进入美国。

NAFTA was no disaster. Two decades on, North America is more economically integrated. Trade between America and Mexico has risen from 1.3% of combined GDP in 1994 to 2.5% in 2015 (see chart). Mexico’s real income per person, on a purchasing-power- parity basis, has risen from about $10,000 in 1994 to $19,000. The number of Mexicans migrating to America has fallen from about half a million a year to almost none. And yet the deal has disappointed in many ways. Mexican incomes are no higher, as a share of those in America, than they were in 1994. (Chinese incomes rose from about 6% of those in America to 27% during that time.) Estimates suggest that the deal left Americans as a whole a bit better off. But the gains have proved too small, and too unevenly distributed, to spare it continued criticism.?

北美自由贸易协定(NAFTA)并不是什么坏事。20年以来，北美地区在经济上更为交融。美国和墨西哥两国的贸易额从1994年仅占两国总国内生产总值的1.3%上升至2015年的占比2.5%。在购买力平价的假设下，墨西哥人均实际收入从1994年的10000美元增长至19000美元。移民至美国的墨西哥人口数也从每年大约50多万人下降至几乎为零。但是，这份贸易协定还是有些不尽如人意的地方。1994年以来，墨西哥人均收入所占美国人均收入的比例几乎没有增长。(形成对照的是，中国人均收入占美国人均收入之比从6%上升至27%。)计划是北美贸易协定会使美洲这一个整体经济状况越来越好。但是事实是，该协定产生的利收益太少，且利益分布太不均衡，以至于它一直以来都遭受批评和指责。

The sniping is unfair. Unexpected shocks prevented the deal from reaching its full potential. Both the peso crisis of 1994-95 and the global financial crisis dealt blows to trade between the two countries. So did the American border controls introduced after the attacks of September 11th 2001, which raised the cost of moving goods and people. The rapid, disruptive growth of China also interfered with North American integration. The Chinese economy, accounting for more than 13% of global exports and around 25% of global manufacturing value-added, exerts an irresistible pull on global supply chains.?

这样的指责其实是不公正的。意想不到的危机使得这份协定没办法充分展示其潜力。1994年至1995年的比索危机以及全球金融危机对美墨两国的贸易造成了巨大的打击。再加上2001年9月11日美国本土遭受袭击之后推行的边境控制，更是提高了商品运输和人们出行的流通成本，同样也对两国贸易构成打击。中国经济迅疾而又极具颠覆性的发展也影响到北美经济一体化进程：占到全球出口总额13％以上，全球制造业增加值约25%的中国经济，对全球供应链有着难以抗拒的吸引力。

Nor is NAFTA chiefly responsible for the woes of the American worker. In a recent essay Brad DeLong, an economic historian at the University of California, Berkeley, reckoned NAFTA might be blamed for net job losses of the order of 0.1% of the American labor force—fewer jobs than the American economy adds in a typical month. Even without NAFTA, manufacturing jobs would have dwindled. The strong dollar and better transport and communications technology made it more attractive to produce abroad. Automation hastened the persistent long-term decline in industrial employment that is familiar in all rich economies— even in export powerhouses such as Germany.?

然而对于美国的工人来说，北美自由贸易协定(NAFTA)并不是他们痛苦的主要来源。加州伯克利大学的经济学史家布拉德帝龙在最近的一篇论文中指出，美国劳动力人口中只有0.1％的净裁员可以归咎于北美自由贸易协定，而这个数目比美国经济体一个月内增加的工作岗位数还要少。即使北美自由贸易协定没有签署，制造业的工作岗位也还是会减少。坚挺的美元、优质的运输以及发达的通信技术都使得将工厂开在国外如此吸引人。自动化则加速了长久以来工业领域就业的下滑，这一现象在发达国家很常见，即便是如德国这样的出口大国。

Beggar my neighbor?

求求我的邻国

Most important, the failure to agree a trade deal with Mexico would not have altered North American geography. Mexico shares a 3,200km-long border with the world’s largest economy. It is almost inevitable that America will be Mexico’s largest trading partner (America currently accounts for more than 70% of Mexican exports and more than 50% of its imports). Deep familial and cultural ties across the border shrink the distance between them even more. Mexico cannot help but be critically dependent on its neighbor’s economy. And America unquestionably benefits when Mexico, which has the world’s tenth-largest population and 15th-biggest economy, is more prosperous.

?

最为重要的是，与墨西哥达成贸易协定的失败并不会改变北美的地理情况。墨西哥与美国，世界上最大的经济体接壤，边境线达3200千米之远。几乎不可避免，美国将成为墨西哥最大的贸易伙伴 (现今墨西哥出口量超过70％销往美国，进口量超过50%源于美国。)美墨两国间深厚的家族和文化渊源进一步缩短了两国间的距离。墨西哥只能紧紧地依附于其邻国美国的经济，毫无疑问，当墨西哥这个拥有世界上第10大人口、第15大国土的国家更加繁荣昌盛时，美国也会受益更多。

A richer Mexico would buy more American goods and services and provide more ideas, talent and innovation. It would also be better placed to manage migration, and a stronger diplomatic partner. Eliminating tariffs on Mexico would not instantly transform it into Canada, but the notion that higher trade costs between the two economies would serve American interests better is, at best, short-sighted. No wall can insulate America against events to its south, and Americans’ own well-being is intimately linked to the welfare of their around 125m Mexican neighbors.?

更加富裕的墨西哥会从美国购买更多的商品和服务，并为之提供更多的想法、人才和革新。墨西哥也许可以更好地处理移民问题，成为美国更为强大的外交伙伴。免除墨西哥商品的关税不会使墨西哥立即转变为加拿大那样的国家，调高美墨两国之间的贸易成本会对美国更加有利的观点，充其量只是一种目光短浅的看法。没有哪一堵墙可以将美国的事件与南方的墨西哥隔绝开，毕竟美国自身的经济状况与拥有1.25亿人口的墨西哥邻国的福祉紧密相连。

It is hard to blame Americans for seeing globalization as a zero-sum affair. Stagnant pay, rising inequality and government complacency as industrial regions suffered long-term decline have obscured the benefits of trade and created fertile ground for populists. As a result Americans feel let down by NAFTA. Yet NAFTA has itself been let down by American leaders, who neither made the case that higher living standards are a positive-sum game, nor allowed the benefits of growth to be broadly shared. If the upshot is the disintegration of the North American economy, those on both sides of the Rio Grande will be worse off.?

美国人将全球化视为一场零和博弈也并不完全是他们的过错。工业区逐年衰落，停滞不前的薪酬、加剧的不平等和政府自满遮盖了国家从贸易中取得的利益，也为民粹主义者的嘲讽创造了契机。因此，美国人对北美自由贸易协定(NAFTA)倍感失望。美国领导层同样对北美自由贸易协定失望不已。但是他们既没有认识到该协定是一个可以同时提高本国人民生活水平的正和博弈，也阻止了其发展成果广泛共享，北美自由贸易协定(NAFTA)在实施过程中也受到很多阻碍。如果说这份贸易协定带来的结果是北美经济的分崩离析，只怕美墨两国情况都会更加糟糕。

这篇文章是围绕北美自由贸易协定的利弊展开的。第二个小标题之前的半篇文章都是概述该协定给美墨两国贸易、经济上的受益，之后从反面论证该协定其实还能进一步给美墨两国带来经济上的优势，却因一系列不公正的非难而沦为炮灰。最后，作者深入分析美墨两国的经济因为邻国的关系其实是紧密相连的，美墨两国完全可以在不损害另一国效益的前提下增加本国的效用，达成一种正和博弈。北美自由贸易协定的瓦解则会对两国经济产生巨大的负面效用。